The latest figures (April 2014) for UK manufacturing and industrial output showed an acceleration in expansion to reach 3% yoy growth for industry as a whole.
Manufacturing output growth was even stronger at 4.4% yoy.
But remember UK industrial output is still well below pre-crash levels, – some 11% below while manufacturing is still 7% down.
Another long-term feature is the decline in the UK’s North Sea oil and gas production. It’s straight downwards and is now 40% lower than in 2004.That does not auger well for an independent Scotland relying on energy revenues to do better if outside the UK.
The UK’s capital goods sector is doing particularly better, but this sector (aerospace, engines etc) is mainly for export not domestic demand.
All this brings me to make a few rash predictions about the UK and elsewhere for 2015 and beyond. I am ready to be shot down, but…
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